Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 38.918106 45.960763 53.659843 62.668452 72.885722 84.079037 97.233167
2025-01-12 30.117586 39.910297 51.612905 66.479915 84.702710 106.142599 133.092348
2025-01-19 22.071630 32.203374 45.227349 62.888059 85.866340 114.381606 152.026314
2025-01-26 18.652434 29.424570 44.101401 65.038389 93.541646 130.342213 180.693232
2025-02-02 16.779465 28.296830 44.777855 69.293394 103.915754 150.049830 214.969144
2025-02-09 14.677494 26.412116 44.013693 71.249521 111.044794 165.623945 244.400900
2025-02-16 12.797102 24.518313 42.907343 72.433242 116.950816 179.632820 272.198059
2025-02-23 10.983004 22.409558 41.152444 72.350837 120.831015 190.817308 296.414789
2025-03-02 9.219826 20.076250 38.711419 70.872638 122.363083 198.530838 315.872515
2025-03-09 7.947139 18.402004 37.124646 70.527400 125.470912 208.542506 338.907331
2025-03-16 6.347293 15.805434 33.601167 66.582340 122.517155 209.181100 347.999863
2025-03-23 5.756002 15.130544 33.421697 68.268611 128.674290 223.899595 378.643685
2025-03-30 4.833485 13.678904 31.802218 67.613957 131.494870 234.484535 404.975200
2025-04-06 4.514949 13.535717 32.727496 71.716291 142.772943 259.256786 454.737018
2025-04-13 3.509130 11.521406 29.593549 67.894504 139.991427 261.155919 468.642537
2025-04-20 3.166748 11.079929 29.661042 70.184386 148.129713 281.293977 512.373365
2025-04-27 3.024020 11.139160 30.816905 74.712857 160.583191 309.171370 569.669951
2025-05-04 2.728083 10.696843 30.779073 76.793668 168.611966 329.876329 615.979299
2025-05-11 2.418855 10.133488 30.374536 78.052536 175.137322 348.245929 659.065718
2025-05-18 2.079614 9.378268 29.392302 77.964906 179.038508 362.171925 695.178538
2025-05-25 1.722435 8.445895 27.814875 76.392811 179.890226 370.688528 722.374668
2025-06-01 1.469057 7.787595 26.830252 76.025592 183.065131 383.435448 757.197733
2025-06-08 1.123880 6.639576 24.315725 71.827936 178.119814 381.121708 765.723934